The math that decides if you make money
- Your profit is not your win rate — it is your average win versus your average loss, weighted by how often each happens.
- Every trade pays the spread and the ticket fee, win or lose. Costs come off both sides of the equation, which is why a "60% win rate" can still lose money.
- Expectancy per trade = (win rate × average win) − (loss rate × average loss). Positive over 1000 trades, you grow. Negative, you are a losing trader regardless of how good the chart looks.
- The breakeven win rate tells you how good you must be just to stand still: tight targets need a high win rate, wide targets can afford to lose more often.
Risk/reward & cost calculator
Enter your take profit, stop loss, win rate, spread and ticket fee. The calculator runs your configuration over 1000 trades on a $20,000 account at fixed position size — and shows what you actually keep.
Fixed position size, no compounding, no slippage or swap. Illustrative math — not financial advice.
What the verdicts mean
- Losing trader: the configuration loses money over 1000 trades. No position sizing and no lucky streak saves a negative expectancy.
- Profitable but don't quit your day job: a real but modest edge. Keep the day job until the numbers survive costs, slippage and a drawdown.
- Open an account now and start your new career: a strongly positive expectancy. Prove it in the simulator first, then take it to a regulated broker with money you can afford to risk.
Costs are the silent edge killer
- A $7 ticket fee on a $10,000 position is 0.07% — paid on all 1000 trades, that is $7,000 gone before the market even moves.
- Spread works the same way: a 0.02% spread costs $2 per trade on a $10,000 position, another $2,000 over the sample.
- Costs are why scalpers with thin targets die: the smaller your take profit, the bigger the share of every win the broker takes.
- Change the spread and fee inputs in the calculator above and watch a "profitable" setup flip to a losing trader in real time.
Practice this — risk-free
The WallStreet Billionaire simulator runs your trades against real historical charts with a virtual balance. Build this exact configuration in the simulator — your take profit, stop loss and position size — and check whether your real win rate matches the one you assumed here.
Try to beat my tradingTurn practice into prize money
Same charts, same 15 trades, shared starting balance — the winner takes 8× their buy-in in real money, 2nd gets 3×, 3rd gets 2×. Start with a free 5-trade demo run, or buy into a €5, €25 or €50 division.
Ready for the real market?
Practiced until your numbers are green? Open a live account with a regulated broker — and start small.
Frequently asked questions
What is a good risk/reward ratio for trading?+
Most professionals look for at least 1.5:1 to 2:1 average win versus average loss after costs, so a win rate below 50% can still be profitable. The calculator shows the exact breakeven win rate for your numbers.
How do spread and commission affect my win rate?+
They raise your breakeven win rate, because every trade pays them — winners included. With a 2:1 R:R your breakeven might be 34% before costs, but spread and ticket fees push it several points higher.
Does this calculator include compounding?+
No — it uses a fixed position size over 1000 trades, which is the honest way to see your raw edge. Compounding is the reward for a positive expectancy; the calculator shows whether that expectancy exists at all.
Is 1000 trades enough to trust the result?+
Yes — 1000 trades is a large sample where luck averages out. If your configuration is negative over 1000 trades at fixed size, it is a losing configuration, not a bad run.
Last updated: September 2026. Written and maintained by the WallStreet Billionaire research team, the same traders and engineers who build the simulator every guide on this site points to.
Every guide pairs written strategy analysis with an interactive calculator so you can test the claim with your own numbers, then rehearse it risk-free in the simulator. Educational content only — not financial advice. See our imprint.